Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
